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November - Dezember 2002 Letzte Einträge zuerst
From niels.boeing Wed Dec 4 22:32:49 2002
so meine lieben, nachdem ich jetzt drei tage damit zugebracht habe, schwitzend und fluchend zwischen all den anderen texten, die für den brotjob drängen, ist es endlich so weit: wir habe eine neue rubrik: "welt in der revolte", zu erkennen an dem schönen genua-bild auf der startseite http://www.km21.org . da das thema globalisierung hier immer wichtig war, fand ich, es sei an der zeit, dies als dritten schwerpunkt neben bitland und understanding capitalism einzuführen. zwar gibt es einige überschneidungen mit der kapitalismus-kritik, aber es soll besonders um die kulturellen, politischen und historischen aspekte des phänomens gehen. auch der neue "war on terrorism" gehört hier hinein. schaut es euch einfach mal an, es sind auch einige texte aus alten woche-tagen dabei, die meines erachtens nicht in der versenkung verschwinden durften (jan, oliver, phoebe, sven - die woche lebt!). wer hier noch material beisteuern kann, vor allem statistiken, detaillierte beschreibungen von iwf, wto etc. - immer her damit. ach ja, ich würde mich sehr freuen, wenn ihr weitere vorschläge für konkrete aktionen für eine positiv gewendete globalisierung machen könntet. meine ersten bescheidenen ideen findet ihr am ende meines einführungstextes http://www.km21.org/welt_in_der_revolte/globalisierung_1102.htm - in dem ich übrigens eine verbindung der bambulisten aus st. pauli mit der globalisierungskritik behaupte. ansonsten gibt es ein paar andere neue texte auf der startseite, und weitere sind in arbeit. das mailinglisten-archiv reicht jetzt bis zum 30. juni (siehe "archiv"). viel spaß beim stöbern, euer niels PS: tote links bitte an mich
From peltzer Mon Dec 2 21:03:34 2002 Krieg gegen den Irak? Nützliche Informationen Grüße Oliver _ GULF WAR II: THE POSSIBILITIES MoveOn Peace Bulletin, International Edition Wednesday, November 27, 2002 Susan V. Thompson, Editor susan.thompson@moveon.org Leah Appet, Editorial Assistant leah@moveon.org Read online or subscribe at: http://www.peace.moveon.org/bulletin.php3#sub CONTENTS 1. Introduction: Still on the Brink 2. One Link: What Does the US Hope to Gain? 3. UNSC Resolutions: Stopping War, or Justifying It? 4. Potential Coalition Members 5. Current Preparations 6. US Strategy and Troops 7. Iraqi Strategy, and the Possibility of Success 8. Costs 9. Casualties and Humanitarian Consequences 10. Regime Change 11. Effects on Veterans 12. Next? 13. Free Booklet Offer 14. Credits 15. Get Involved 16. About the Bulletin INTRODUCTION: STILL ON THE BRINK Will there be a war on Iraq in the next few months? The UN has passed the US/UK resolution on Iraq. Some argue that this has blocked the possibility of war for the time being. Weapons inspectors have arrived in Baghdad, and the optimistic view is that Iraqi compliance with these inspections could yet stave off conflict. Yet while the rest of the world continues to stress the importance of the inspections, the US remains intent on war. The Bush administration has made it clear that the inspections are little more than a delay before the inevitable full-blown attack. For example, the US very recently characterized Iraqi anti-aircraft fire as a "material breach" of the UN resolution, questioned the competence of Chief Inspector Hans Blix, and flat-out stated that even if the weapons inspectors find nothing, the US will still assume that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. Nor have current preparations indicated any withdrawal of aggression. Intimidating numbers of US troops and equipment are now within striking distance of the Iraqi border. US and British planes have been flying missions over the Iraqi no-fly zones that are knocking out more important targets with more frequency. Diplomatic preparations for the war, which include negotiating participation in a US-led coalition, are being made in earnest. And US plans for a post-Hussein regime are apparently in the final stages of discussion. Meanwhile, Dec. 8th is fast approaching. It is the deadline for the government of Iraq to release a complete report detailing its weapons capabilities. If the report is incomplete, late, or otherwise unsatisfactory, it is likely that Iraq will be declared to be in "material breach" of the UNSC resolution. The US may then draft a new resolution authorizing war to be presented to the UN, probably largely due to international pressure to once again ensure international consensus before acting. Or the US may argue that a new resolution is not needed, and launch a war on Iraq without UN approval. Some British reports have already pinpointed the official start date of a new Iraq war as Dec. 16. So there are many indications that we remain on the brink of Gulf War II. As the gap between threat and action continues to close, a much clearer picture of the strategies, tactics, and potential consequences of the war is emerging. Based on current reporting and the statements of US officials, it is even possible to begin to piece together a general idea of what the war could look like, from start to finish. For example, it seems clear now that 200,000 to 260,000 US troops will be involved, including reserve troops; that plans for a post-Hussein regime all seem to include an immediate period of rule by a US military regime, headed by a US general; and that a new Gulf War could potentially kill 500,000 civilians, according to conservative estimates. We are loath to accept the idea that an Iraq war is already a foregone conclusion and this bulletin is not meant as an argument for despair. Rather, now that we are ostensibly in the crucial last days before the war, we believe it is time to examine the war plans being laid in order to stop them. Now more than ever, it's time to work for peace. ONE LINK: GOALS OF THE WAR What does the US hope to gain from Gulf War II? According to the Bush administration, the goal is to disarm Iraq, thereby making the world a safer place, and helping win the "war on terrorism." Yet not everyone believes that this is an accurate statement of the goals of the war. "[A]t first sight, the longer-term gains for the US look pretty limited, whereas the consequences of failure would be catastrophic. A general Middle Eastern conflagration and the collapse of more pro-Western Arab states would lose us the war against terrorism, doom untold thousands of Western civilians to death in coming decades, and plunge the world economy into depression," writes Anatol Lieven, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. So why is the current administration still risking it? In this thoughtful article from the London Review of Books, Lievens proposes several reasons: * to scare the countries in the region into capitulating to US and Israeli interests * to secure access to oil * to counter the threat of competition from China by surrounding it http://www.lrb.co.uk/v24/n19/liev01_.html UNSC RESOLUTIONS: STOPPING WAR, OR JUSTIFYING IT? The UN Security Council (UNSC) unanimously passed the US/UK resolution regarding Iraq on Nov. 8. It requires Iraq to accept weapons inspections, and to provide a detailed report on their weapons capabilities by Dec. 8. The full official text of the UNSC resolution can be found at: http://daccess-ods.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N02/682/26/PDF/N0268226.pdf?OpenElem ent The question now is whether the US will seek a new UN resolution before actually launching an attack on Iraq, or if it will launch an attack on its own and justify it based on the language of the current resolution. Unfortunately, there are still gray areas in the resolution that the US could cite as permission to attack Iraq. http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,834986,00.html Yet while the Bush administration insists that "[i]f the Security Council fails to act decisively in the event of further Iraqi violations, this resolution does not constrain any member state from acting to defend itself against the threat posed by Iraq or to enforce relevant United Nations resolutions," Stephen Zunes, an associate professor of politics and chair of the Peace and Justice Studies Program at the University of San Francisco, argues that the resolution does NOT authorize the US to use force against Iraq. Some key pieces of diplomatic language make it clear that the US is to seek a new UN resolution first. http://www.commondreams.org/views02/1114-03.htm Iraqi officials are "staggered" by the extent of access that the weapons inspection team is demanding, and are concerned that they may have difficulty meeting the Dec. 8 deadline for the submission of their detailed report on Iraq's weapons capabilities. Any tardiness in submitting the report could be seen as a "material breach" of the UN resolution and could be used to justify war. http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=353927 Weapons inspectors have arrived in Iraq, but Hans Blix, the chief inspector, is accusing Washington of being behind a smear campaign that appears designed to discredit him. According to the Guardian, "The US whispering campaign against Mr Blix, a former Swedish diplomat, may be designed to undercut any report that is favourable to Iraq," and thus help justify war. http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,842944,00.html Columnist Charley Reese comments that "Saddam will have a greater problem if he doesn't have any weapons of mass destruction. If he has some, he can turn them in; if he doesn't, he's stuck with trying to prove a negative, which is impossible. How can anyone prove he does not have something to a person who won't take his word for it? No matter how much searching the arms inspectors do, if there is nothing to find, the Bush administration will likely claim it's still hidden somewhere." http://reese.king-online.com/Reese_20021120/index.php What if no weapons of mass destruction are found by U.N. weapons inspectors inside Iraq? According to US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, "What it would prove would be that the inspection process had been successfully defeated by the Iraqis. There's no question but that the Iraqi regime is clever, they've spent a lot of time hiding things, dispersing things, tunneling underground." In other words, war will go ahead either way. Rumsfeld has also been promising that a war on Iraq won't last more than five months. http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/11/15/rumsfeld.iraq/index.html Richard Perle has also stated that the success of the weapons inspections will not stop US war plans. Perle told British M.P.'s "I cannot see how Hans Blix can state more than he can know. All he can know is the results of his own investigations. And that does not prove Saddam does not have weapons of mass destruction." http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/allnews/page.cfm?objectid=12377231&method=full& siteid=5014 The US has appeared impatient about waiting for the "failure" of the weapons inspections. The US government recently claimed that Iraqi fire at US warplanes over the "no-fly" zones is a contravention of the security council resolution. The UN's secretary general has been quick to disagree with this interpretation of the resolution in the midst of concerns that the US could use this an an "automatic trigger for war." http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/1119-01.htm POTENTIAL COALITION MEMBERS Who is likely to support an attack on Iraq? If the US doesn't seek a new UN resolution, it will probably be difficult for the US to find support. The US is not seeking a broad coalition, but is focusing on building a coalition that includes Britain, Turkey, and possibly Australia. http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/1120/p01s01-usmi.html Canada has also been asked to commit troops. http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2002/11/14/powell_021114 Arab states such as Jordan and Egypt fear that if they support the US war, they will "face an eruption of domestic anger" that could threaten their own regimes. In contrast, Israeli leader Ariel Sharon has vowed to attack back if Hussein attacks Israel, raising the specter of another Arab-Israeli war. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/middle_east/2239277.stm CURRENT PREPARATIONS The foundation for war with Iraq is being carefully laid, both diplomatically and militarily . This is an excellent overview of the Bush administration's current efforts to build international support for a war on Iraq, with an eye towards creating a coalition as well as gaining support for a possible new UN resolution authorizing the use of force. Some information on troops and equipment is also provided. http://www.truthout.org/docs_02/11.20E.up.lay.iraq.htm In fact, a secret "war before the war" is currently taking place, with the goal of either toppling Hussein's regime without a full-blown attack or just paving the way for a full-blown attack. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101021202-393574-2,00.html The US is already amassing troops near Iraq as part of "training exercises", and is bombing the "no-fly" zones frequently, which, according to this article, is to help cripple Iraq's air defense systems in preparation for a US attack. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/nov2002/iraq-n06.shtml The following is an excellent guide that shows the buildup of US troops using a clickable map. http://www.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,5860,791671,00.html (flash animation) US STRATEGY AND TROOPS November through February is the optimal window for an Iraq campaign, given seasonal considerations of daylight, temperature, and climate, military experts say. http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0913/p01s02-usmi.html It appears that a war on Iraq could be a "Christmas Blitz" starting on Dec. 16. http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/news5.html In April, General Tommy Franks told senior Pentagon officers that a new war against Iraq would likely take five divisions and 200,000 troops. At the time, other officials said it was more likely that a second Gulf War would rely on fewer ground troops than suggested by Gen. Franks, and be "more air-centric." http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020426-41274916.htm The most recent reports indicate that the plan to use 200,000 troops still stands, but it will be part of a strategy of swift surgical strikes aimed at ending the conflict as quickly as possible. Air and ground operations will occur almost simultaneously. http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/1112/p01s01-usmi.html The Guardian offers an excellent guide which explains the five main phases of a possible US war on Iraq. A short overview of possible casualties is also offered for each phase. Apparently there is the chance that Hussein may use nerve gas against US troops. If nuclear war erupts (which could happen if Iraq attacks Israel and Israel retaliates) some 4 million Iraqis could be killed. http://www.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,5860,650132,00.html (flash animation) IRAQI STRATEGY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCCESS Would it be easy to win a war against Iraq? That seems to be the general assumption, especially in light of the recent "success" in Afghanistan. Donald Rumsfeld has predicted that a war on Iraq will be short. On Nov. 14, he said, "I can't say if the use of force would last five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn't going to last any longer than that." However, this prediction may be strategically ill-informed. Dr. Tony Dodge, an expert on Iraq, contends that war on Iraq this time will be much different than in the first Gulf War, and could be long and bloody. http://commondreams.org/headlines02/1116-04.htm Foreign Policy in Focus (FPIF) provides seven reasons to oppose the Iraq war, the seventh of which is that defeating Iraq would be militarily difficult. According to FPIF, it is a mistake to compare a new Gulf War to the first Gulf War, or even the war on Afghanistan, because: * Iraq's offensive capabilities have been weakened but its defensive military capabilities remain strong. * In the first Gulf War, only two of the eight divisions of the elite Iraqi Republican Guard were ever in Kuwait, and they pulled back before the war began in mid-January. Meanwhile, Iraq's strongest forces were withdrawn to areas around Baghdad to fight for the survival of the regime itself, where they remain. * Iraq has a far more sophisticated infrastructure than the largely rural and tribal Afghanistan that could be mobilized in the event of a foreign invasion. * The lack of support from regional allies could result in an absence of a land base from which to launch US aerial attacks. * US soldiers could be faced with bitter, house-to-house fighting (including in Baghdad, a city of 5 million people). * There is no Iraqi equivalent to Afghanistan's Northern Alliance to fight the war for the US. The Kurds have been abandoned twice by the US and the armed Shiite opposition has largely been eliminated. * There is the possibility of ongoing guerrilla action by Saddam Hussein's supporters. * Without Saddam Hussein's regime, it is likely that Iraq could erupt into civil war, leaving the US faced with fighting to maintain peace in the midst of competing armed factions. http://www.fpif.org/papers/iraq2.html Iraqi defectors disagree about how hard Iraqi troops would fight to repel a US attack. They point out that the Iraqi military has been split into the regular army and the Iraqi Republican Guard and special forces, the latter being charged with protecting the Hussein regime. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20021115/wl_nm/iraq_milita ry_dc_2 While some Iraqi troops may defect, others may fight hard, especially since they will be defending their homeland rather than a new acquisition (as in the case of Kuwait). Hussein may also use his weapons of mass destruction in defense of his regime, assuming he has them. The conclusion this paper draws is that "...an American military victory against Iraq is imminently achievable. The only question remains: at what cost?" http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/primer-iraq.cfm It appears that Iraq may be planning on concentrating its 400,000 troops in cities, forcing the US to fight a ground battle in major centers rather than a desert battle, which would give the US a better chance to use air strikes. This "street-level" combat would result in higher numbers of Iraqi civilian casualties, and higher numbers of US casualties as well--probably much higher than in other recent wars. However, experts disagree about whether or not US soldiers would get "bogged down" as a result of the strategy. http://www.guardian.co.uk/bush/story/0,7369,771600,00.html Retired Marine General Anthony Zinni, former head of Central Command for U.S. forces in the Middle East, spoke at the Middle East Institute's annual conference, and offered his own predictions and reservations about war with Iraq. According to Zinni, success in Iraq can't be measured purely by military outcomes, but rather in political terms, i.e., whether the political goals of the war are accomplished. http://www.alternet.org/story.html?StoryID=14317 Rep. Ron Paul lists some of the unintended consequences that he thinks could come from a war on Iraq. Highly recommended. http://www.antiwar.com/paul/paul55.html COSTS William Nordhaus, Sterling professor of economics at Yale University, has stated that "One way or another, Americans will pay for the war." Based on recent studies, Professor Nordhaus estimates that in a best-case scenario, the war will cost about $50 billion US dollars, with reconstruction efforts costing anywhere from $20 billion to $500 billion. If the war becomes protracted, costs could easily climb higher. This is bearing in mind that the US only paid about $2 billion for the first Gulf War, because Saudi Arabia picked up the tab for the rest; in a new Gulf War, the US will be solely responsible for the costs. http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID419 Economists agree that a war is likely to have a negative impact on the economy and might tip the US into recession. http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2002/09/18092002152759.asp Higher oil prices are also a given. http://www.msnbc.com/news/791713.asp?0dm=H17NB&cp1=1 CASUALTIES AND HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War have released a new report which predicts that a US-led attack on Iraq could kill between 48,000 and 260,000 civilians and combatants in just the first three months of conflict. According to the report, post-war health effects could take an additional 200,000 lives. http://www.ippnw.org/CollateralDamage.html The humanitarian crisis that would ensue as the result of a new war would include the creation of 1.5 million refugees. Yet unlike Afghanistan, there is currently no infrastructure for dealing with such a crisis. http://www.refugeesinternational.org/cgi-bin/ri/oped.html?oc=00071 REGIME CHANGE This article asks, "Is the Bush administration's promise to create a democratic paradise in a post-Saddam Iraq for real -- or just more salesmanship for war?" Based on the poor results of reconstruction in the former Yugoslavia, the answer is that the US can't be counted on to follow through on its promises. http://www.tompaine.com/feature.cfm/ID/6750 The Bush administration has revealed that they plan to install an American military regime in Iraq, to remain in place for several years. It would closely resemble the post-war occupation of Japan, and would likely be run by a US general, such as General Tommy Franks. The occupation would require 75,000 troops, and would probably cost about $16 billion dollars. http://www.edinburghnews.com/index.cfm?id=1132572002 Recent reports suggest that a US military regime is just the first part of a three-stage plan for governing a post-war Iraq. The following two stages would include a vaguely defined "international civilian administration," and finally "a representative, multiethnic Iraqi government after some sort of constitutional convention." The plan was created by an interagency task force named the Executive Steering Group. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N2359238 The Sunday Herald lists the top contenders for Saddam Hussein's job, all of whom are described as "thugs." http://www.sundayherald.com/27877 Interestingly, one of current top prospects to fight Saddam Hussein's regime, the Iraqi National Congress (INC) was completely engineered by the Rendon Group, a public relations firm with links to the US administration. The leader of the INC, who could be picked to replace Saddam Hussein, has very little support among the Iraqi people, meaning that he may not gain their support. This excellent article also very cogently summarizes the past exploits of public relations firms in the build-up to US wars, and especially the first Gulf War. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DK13Ak01.html Any post-Saddam regime will face the challenge of building consensus between the numerous Iraqi anti-Saddam factions. http://www.tdn.com/articles/2002/11/07/nation_world/news02.txt A private US firm, under contract with the State Department, is "training Iraqi exiles in economics, accountancy and finance in preparation for restructuring the country's state-controlled system into a Western, market-driven economy." This training is part of the "Future of Iraq Project." http://www.truthout.org/docs_02/11.17D.train.iraqis.htm Will a regime change lead to more stability in the Middle East? This is a very interesting article which examines the aims of a new Gulf War in light of the history of the Middle East, and compares the planned US-led regime change in Iraq to the regime change carried out there by the British in the 30's. Both regime changes, according to the author, are explicitly related to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, and unless that conflict is solved, it is unlikely that a new regime change will be successful in stabilizing the region. Note that this article refers to comments by involved parties that indicate that the goal of a post-Gulf War II regime is to create "a non-Arab Iraq." http://www.yellowtimes.org/article.php?sid=843 LONG-TERM GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES Even a successful war effort in Iraq could have long-term consequences that we aren't currently able to imagine. This excellent article overviews the results of interviews with a diverse group of experts, and in the process, debunks some of the common assumptions about a war on Iraq, including the idea that it could be quick in-and-out war, and the idea that installing a democratic regime is possible. However, the ultimate point of the article is that we need to look beyond the short-term consequence of war on Iraq. "Wars change history in ways no one can foresee. The Egyptians who planned to attack Israel in 1967 could not imagine how profoundly what became the Six Day War would change the map and politics of the Middle East. After its lightning victory Israel seized neighboring territory, especially on the West Bank of the Jordan River, that is still at the heart of disputes with the Palestinians. Fifty years before, no one who had accurately foreseen what World War I would bring could have rationally decided to let combat begin. The war meant the collapse of three empires, the Ottoman, the Austro-Hungarian, and the Russian; the cresting of another, the British; the eventual rise of Hitler in Germany and Mussolini in Italy; and the drawing of strange new borders from the eastern Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf, which now define the battlegrounds of the Middle East. Probably not even the United States would have found the war an attractive bargain, even though the U.S. rise to dominance began with the wounds Britain suffered in those years." http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2002/11/fallows.htm EFFECTS ON VETERANS Soldiers in a new Gulf War would be facing the possibility of exposing themselves to the same environmental factors which are currently being blamed for a constellation of illnesses referred to by the general name of "Gulf War Syndrome." For one thing, any ground troops would be exposed to depleted uranium, or DU, left over from the first Gulf War, which may be to blame for high rates of cancer and birth defects both among Iraqi civilians and veterans of 1990 Gulf War. Probably one of the best guides on Gulf War Syndrome is this one, provided by the National Gulf War Resource Center. If you have the time, you may want to read through the entire thing, which explains the possible relation of veterans' illnesses to chemicals, weapons, pollutants, and diseases which were present in the Gulf War environment. According to the guide, 110,000 American Gulf War veterans have reported health problems since their service. http://www.ngwrc.org/shg/page2.html Some 3 out of 4 servicemen and women may have come into contact with DU during the Gulf War. http://www.miltoxproj.org/DU/dupd.htm For information on training techniques, Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, and other issues affecting veterans in general, please see MoveOn's previous bulletin, "Learning to Kill" at: http://www.peace.moveon.org/bulletin41.php3 NEXT? Iran, which President Bush has listed as part of the "axis of evil," is a likely future target. If the US successfully attacks Iraq, it would be in the ideal position to attack Iran, or possibly Syria or Lebanon. According to this article, Israel regards Iran as a major competitor, and much more of a nuclear threat than Iraq; thus Israel is advocating that Iran be next. http://www.foreigncorrespondent.com/archive/next_target.html Perhaps out of awareness of the fact that it could be next, Iran appears to be making some preliminary moves towards aiding the US with a new Gulf War. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usatoday/20021115/ts_usatoday /4626467 ... CREDITS Research team: Dean Bellerby, Joanne Comito, Anna Gavula, Wendy Hamblet, Keiko Hatch, Russ Juskalian, Mary Kim, Maha Mikhail, Vicki Nikolaidis, Ben Spencer, Ora Szekely, and Sharon Winn. Proofreading team: David Taub Bancroft, Madlyn Bynum, Carol Brewster, Melinda Coyle, Nancy Evans, Anne Haehl, Mary Kim, Dagmara Meijers-Troller, Leslie Strudwick and Alfred K. Weber. GET INVOLVED If you would like us to include an action, news article, or source for more information in the bulletin, please write to susan.thompson@moveon.org and describe your item in the subject line. ABOUT THE BULLETIN The MoveOn Peace bulletin is a weekly newsletter providing resources, news, and action ideas to over 50,000 people around the world. The full text of the bulletin is online at http://www.peace.moveon.org/bulletin.php3#sub ; users can subscribe to the bulletin at that address also. The bulletin is a project of MoveOn.org. Contact susan.thompson@moveon.org for more information.
From franz Wed Nov 27 18:13:22 2002 Es wird mit der Atombombe enden Liebe Leute, dieses Interview ist sehr lesenswert, wenngleich nicht ganz neu. Viele Grüße, Franz
From christianwolf Wed Nov 20 16:09:25 2002 Hallo, ich würde sagen, es sind eigenartige Zeiten (nicht ausgeschlossen, das immer alles irgendwie eigenartig ist). Ich empfinde bei den von Niels beschriebenen Ereignissen, wie auch bei fast allem anderen was auf der Liste der Tagesthemen steht, eine eigenartige Verwirrung. Mir erscheint alles ähnlich realitätsfern und unergründlich wie eine Daily-Soap. Ich will diesen Vergleich erläutern. Täglich gibt es Ereignisse, die mit meinem logischen Menschenverstand nicht nachvollziehbar sind. Z.B. verstehe ich nicht, warum die Havarie des Tankers "Prestige" zu solch dramatischen Folgen führen mußte, wo doch scheinbar allen Beteiligten genau wußten, was am besten zu tun sei. Oder warum eben die Regierung diese oder jene Maßnahme ergreift, welche keiner versteht und die von allen Seiten kritisiert wird. Und versteht vielleicht jemand, wo das ganze Problem mit dem Irak wirklich liegt? Natürlich habe ich meine Meinungen, Urteile oder Vermutungen. Aber ein Gefühl des Wissens stellt sich bei mir einfach nicht ein. Und ich gehöre schon noch zu den Menschen, der mehr als eine Tageszeitung und eine Nachrichtensendung als Informationsquellen nutzt. Trotzdem, immer Kopfschütteln. Wie bei der Soap. Da verstehe ich auch nichts, sondern schüttele immer nur den Kopf ob der umfassenden Dummheit dieser Charaktere. Man erkennt ihre Fehler, sieht das Unheil herankommen und ... ja tatsächlich, sie machen es trotzdem falsch und die Katastrophe ist perfekt. Da der Vergleich jetzt bestimmt nicht jedem einleuchtet: Es geht mir um die Konstruktion von Realität in den Medien. (Ohne das ich jetzt irgendeine Anschuldigung in diese Richtung machen möchte). Bei der Soap ist es (hoffentlich für die meisten erkennbar) Fiktion, in den Nachrichten soll es die Realität sein. Aber beides ist in hohem Masse komprimiert und hat mit der Wirklichkeit nur noch wenig zu tun. Welche Inhalte zur Nachricht oder zur Soap werden, wird durch Faktoren bestimmt, welche die Wirklichkeit verzerren (müssen). Ohne ein Studium der Volkswirtschaft ist es schwer, diese oder jene Maßnahme einer Regierung zum Ankurbeln der Wirtschaft zu verstehen. Es bleibt einem zur Meinungsbildung nur der Ausschnitt der Realität in den Medien. Das reicht aber doch nicht zum Urteilen, oder? Und wie ist es mit dem Irak? Wieviel glaubt ihr, kann man darüber wirklich wissen? Um jetzt zum Schluss zu kommen, meine Frage: Ist die Ursache dieser "verschwörungstheoretische überspanntheit" - die auch ich empfinde - vielleicht eine Projektion, ein vermutetes "mehr dahinter", aufgrund der Unfähigkeit/Unmöglichkeit die (z.B. hier) diskutierteten Themen in ihrer Gänze zu erfassen und zu verstehen? Weil der größte Teil der Medienberichterstattung nur Soap-Qualität hat? Gruß, Christian
From Moritzmeister Wed Nov 20 11:26:21 2002 Eins ist klar, wir leben in unsicheren Zeiten, es herrscht viel Spannung unter der glatten Oberfläche und keiner weiss, wohin die Dinge sich entwickeln werden. Andererseits halte ich von solch historischen Vergleichen wenig, jede Situation in der Menschheitsgeschichte ist neu und einmalig und wird nicht dadurch erhellt, dass die Schatten von früher rangezogen werden. Wenn schon Vergleich, dann bleibt vorerst nur die sicherlich unbefriedigende Tatsache, dass das was in den nächsten Jahren entsteht an neuem Staat bis jetzt noch so unvorstellbar ist (für meisten) wie Ende der 20ziger das 3. Reich mit all den Greultaten. Also Phantasie anstrengen und in alternativen Szenarien denken. An der Stelle wird dann gerne Hitlers Buch zitiert, in dem angeblich alles schon drin stand. Kann ich nicht bestätigen, hab es nie gelesen, gibt es auf der Liste jemanden, der sich damit schon beschäftigt hat? Wie viel und wie konkret wurde was dort vorweggenommen? Und gibt es heute schon vergleichbare Schriften, Visionen im weitesten Sinne von irgendwelchen Politikern? Oder ist eher Zeichen unserer Zeit, dass die "Leute im Hintergrund" nur Verwirrung stiften wollen nach aussen, um in inneren ungestört die Macht zu halten? Damals, zu Beginn des 20. Jhds waren Themen der vorherrschenden Ideologien unter anderem Volksgemeinschaft, Rasse, Kollektiv, Einparteienherrschaft, Personenkult bzw. Führerkult (kein Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit). Aus diesem Zeitgeist heraus agierten die Nazis, aber zum teil auch die Kommunisten, um ihre Wirklichkeit zu organsieren. Heute sind Themen eher Kapitalismus, Profitstreben, Individualismus, Entertainment, Effizienzsteigerung, um nur einige zu nennen. Ich beobachte bei den hier Herrschenden schon die Tendenz nach diesen Grundsätzen zu agieren, dass Demokratie, Vielfalt an Lebensweisen und Streitkultur ausgehöhlt werden, um vordergründig Effizienz, Gewinnsteigerung und gute Unterhaltung für alle (die dazugehören) durchzusetzen. Nebenbei geht es natürlich IMMER um Machterhaltung für die grad herrschende Klasse, deshalb denke ich auch, dass die Demokratie letztlich für jeden waschechten Machtmenschen ein Dorn im Auge ist. Moritz
From niels.boeing Tue Nov 19 19:36:21 2002 das sind doch irgendwie eigenartige tage. die regierung versteht kein mensch, jeder versteht nur, dass sie so die wirtschaft nicht auf die beine bringt. das ist weder links noch rechts,sondern einfach nur bescheuert. und ausgerechnet die mehrwertsteuer will schröder nicht anfassen, dabei ist es a) allemal besser, konsum als arbeit zu besteuern und b) möglich, für luxusgüter höhere steuersätze einzuführen. meinetwegen auch für gesundheitsschädigendes zeug wie zigaretten (ich rauch ja nicht so viel). ein mediziner wird eingespannt, um uns zu erzählen, dass die RAF letztlich eine hirnkrankheit war. dass ulrike meinhofs tochter klagt, finde ich hervorragend, das ganze ist doch eine frechheit, auch wenn man für die RAF keine sympathien hat. gestern lief black box brd auf arte, und der satz im abspann machte mich wieder nachdenklich: keiner der 9 anschläge zwischen 84 und 93 ist aufgeklärt worden. habe neulich aus informierter quelle eine interessante hypothese gehört, nach der die RAF letztlich nützliche idioten gewesen sind für kreise, denen an einer vorübergehenden destabilisierung der bundesrepublik und anschließender verschärfung der inneren sicherheit gelegen war. das bka scheint immer recht gut über die lokalitäten der RAF informiert gewesen zu sein, denn es gab wohl einige länder-SEKs, die gescheitertete verhaftungen auf interventionen des bka zurückführten. agent provocateur: das bringt mich zum dritten punkt - den "krawallen" in hamburg. die lokalen medien gereichen unserer branche nicht zur ehre mit dieser peinlichen berichterstattung. ich war am samstag auf der "autonomen" demo, auf der ganz nebenbei halb st. pauli mitmarschiert ist (viele leute, die ich kenne). hatte gelegenheit, aus 10 m entfernung eine unsinnige polizeikette quer durch die abschlusskundgebung zu erleben. es kam, was kommen musste, die schwarzgewandeten tauchten auf und versuchten der aufforderung der demoleitung an die polizei, die kette abzuziehen, nachdruck zu verleihen. es flogen fäuste und schlagstöcke. vollkommen daneben. aber von der polizeitaktik kein wort in den hamburger blättern. was mich allerdings wunderte, war das gestylte outfit einiger "autonomer". direkt von der carhartt-modenschau. haben die soviel knete? wer bezahlt die eigentlich? am ende schill selbst? das passt doch. die bild ruft jetzt: "schill, wann bekommen sie die gewalt in griff?" der PDS-bundestagskandidat für St.Pauli und Mitte wird jetzt in der bild zur hassfigur aufgebaut. ganz nebenbei ist er türkisch-stämmig. das ist doch alles zum kotzen. lafontaines vergleich von schröder mit brüning lässt mich erschaudern. man möchte über die implikationen nicht nachdenken. wie empfindet ihr das, was gerade passiert? ist es nur eine verschwörungstheoretische überspanntheit von mir? sagt doch bitte was dazu. euer nbo
From silvia.feist Mon Nov 18 20:45:24 2002
Neues Buch bei Simon & Schuster. Dachet, interessiert vielleicht den einen oder die andere. Beste Grüße, Silvia You won't want to miss bestselling author Bob Woodward's vitally important BUSH AT WAR. Based on hundreds of insider interviews, Woodward's chronicle of the first 18 months of the Bush Administration takes you inside the White House as the President responds to the challenge of terror. http://www.simonsays.com/book/default_book.cfm?areaid=3D33&isbn=3D0743204 735
From niels.boeing Fri Nov 15 11:25:30 2002 wirklich schön auf den deckel bekommen deutschlands wirtschaftsverbände heute eins in der FTD: als unkonstruktive supernörgler werden sie gescholten, die hundts und rogowskis etc. "...Wer über Jahre wie der BDI gegen das ach so schlimme deutsche Konsensdenken gewettert hat, darf sich nicht beschweren, wenn Rot-Grün den Gedanken jetzt umsetzt - und sich eben nicht um das Einverständnis der Wirtschaft zum Koalitionsvertrag kümmert. So ist das eben in einer Konfliktgesellschaft..." gute pointe! der ganze text unter: http://www.ftd.de/pw/de/1037174922625.html?nv=3Dlnen ich fände es ja ganz gut, wenn wir noch mal den ball unserer letzten debatte aufnehmen könnten. mich interessiert wirklich, mit welchen konzepten unsere wirtschaft aus der krise kommen kann, oder ob es eigentlich keine nationale wirtschaftspolitik mehr geben kann, weil globalisierung/weltweite rezession/anti-terror-krieg nationales handeln sabotieren. robert, lars, oliver, andre und all ihr anderen wirtschaftsexperten, helft mir doch mal weiter. ciao, nbo
From hanssen Thu Nov 14 11:46:25 2002
Na da mussen wir wohl alle Gehirntumor-Patienten auf die Terroristenliste der USA setzen: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2455647.stm Ausserdem muss wohl der Visa-Fragebogen zur US-Einreise geaendert werden: 1) Haben Sie schon mal Kanabis inhaliert? 2) Sind Sie schon mal an Ihrem Hirntumor operiert worden? 3) Sind Sie zufaellig der Machthaber eines oelfoerdernden Landes? 4) Besitzen Sie keine Waffe sondern nur einen Pilotenschein? 5) Oder sehen sie nur anders aus?
From lars.godzik Tue Nov 12 12:20:18 2002 Hi Leute, aus aktuellem Anlass zur innerparteilichen Diskussion der Grünen gegen "das an die Wand fahren des Rentensystems" Die Leute brauchen support! Derzeit gegen die Anhebung des Rentenbeitrags sind bei den Grünen: - werner.schulz@bundestag.de - christine.scheel@bundestag.de - oswald.metzger@bundestag.de - albert.schmidt@bundestag.de weitere Infos im angehängten Artikel.
FYI Magazin - Schröder droht Niederlage bei Rentenbeitrags-Erhöhung Berlin, 09. Nov (Reuters) - Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) droht nach einem "Spiegel"-Bericht eine Niederlage bei der Bundestagsabstimmung über die Anhebung des Rentenbeitragssatzes. Vor dem Votum am kommenden Freitag hätten bereits zahlreiche Abgeordnete der Grünen signalisiert, der umstrittenen Erhöhung von 19,1 auf 19,5 Prozent nicht zuzustimmen, berichtete das Nachrichtenmagazin am Samstag vorab. SPD und Grüne verfügen im Bundestag über neun Abgeordnete mehr als die Opposition. Der Grünen-Abgeordnete Werner Schulz sagte dem "Spiegel", die Zahl der möglichen Neinsager sei drei- bis viermal größer als die Gruppe der Gegner von Kriegseinsätzen um den Abgeordneten Hans-Christian Ströbele. Diese hatten Schröder im vergangenen Jahr genötigt, die Abstimmung über die Beteiligung der Bundeswehr am Anti-Terror-Einsatz der USA mit der Vertrauensfrage zu verbinden. Letztendlich hatten vier Grüne gegen die Beteiligung gestimmt. Der Anstieg der Rentenbeiträge war am vergangenen Montag in einer rot-grünen Koalitionsrunde gegen heftigen Widerstand der Grünen vereinbart worden. Namentlich nannte der "Spiegel" die Grünen-Abgeordnete Anna Lührmann und ihren Fraktionskollegen Alexander Bonde, die der Fraktionsführung bereits mit ihrer Ablehnung gedroht hätten. Der "Spiegel" zitierte Bonde mit den Worten, das Rentengesetz sei das glatte Gegenteil von Generationengerechtigkeit: "Das steht diametral dem entgegen, weshalb ich bisher Politik gemacht habe." Der Grünen-Abgeordnete Albert Schmidt habe als Bedingung für seine Zustimmung zur Beitragssatzanhebung eine "verbindliche schriftliche Vereinbarung" mit der SPD über die geplante Reform-Kommission für die Gesundheits- und Rentenpolitik verlangt. Bereits am Dienstagabend hatte der Beschluss der Koalitionsrunde in der Grünen-Fraktion Unmut ausgelöst. Etwa ein Drittel der Abgeordneten hatte die Zustimmung verweigert. Dies war allerdings nicht als Vorentscheidung für die Abstimmung im Bundestag gewertet worden. GÖRING-ECKARDT HOFFT AUF ZUSTIMMUNG DER FRAKTION Ein Sprecher der Grünen-Fraktion sagte auf Anfrage, eine Drohung sei "eine Unmutsäußerung und noch kein konkretes Verhalten". Die Grünen-Fraktionschefin Katrin Göring-Eckardt sagte Reuters, sie hoffe, dass bei der Abstimmung am Freitag von den Grünen keine Gegenstimme kommen werde: "Wir werden die Handlungsfähigkeit der Regierung nicht gefährden." Die Grünen hatten bereits Anfang der Woche auf eine neue Rentenreform gedrängt, die auch die heutigen Rentner einbezieht und nachhaltig eine Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten zur Folge hat. Göring-Eckardt sagte der "Berliner Zeitung", zur Stabilisierung der Rentenbeiträge sei es notwendig, das tatsächliche Renteneintrittsalter zu erhöhen. Zudem müssten die private Altersvorsorge nach dem Modell der Riester-Rente nachgebessert und grundlegende Reformen im Gesundheitswesen vorgenommen werden. Die von Rot-Grün geplante Expertenkommission müsse in diesen Fragen Vorschläge erarbeiten. Die Summe der Beiträge zur Gesundheits-, Pflege-, Renten- und Arbeitslosenversicherung beträgt derzeit 41,3 Prozent. Steigende Lohnnebenkosten gelten als Beschäftigungs-Hindernis, weil sie die Arbeit verteuern. sob/kad |
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